2013 Issue

50 presidential race should affect the outcome of state house races. If the elections were perfectly correlated, a scatter diagram of the percentage votes for a house candidate and the percentage for the presidential candidate by precincts should form a 45 degree line (slope equals 1) with an intercept at the origin. I guessed that the local democrats may vote for Mr. Romney and for their local democratic house candidate. If this were true, the in- tercept should reflect the registered demo- cratic percentage. The slope should drop slightly below a one-to-one correlation to make up for the arithmetic difference. If the slope dropsmuch lower, then the candidate may not have been perceivedpositively. The correlation coefficient reveals the strength of the connection of the candidate to the national campaign effect. A high correla- tion should indicate the house candidate’s campaign did not affect the outcome. A low coefficient should indicate that there was an effect. A simple scatter diagram of all 195 precincts reveals good correlation of the house out- comes of democratic candidates to the democratic presidential candidate, Figure 5. The intercept reflects the actual democratic base in Davis County. Interestingly, it is larger than the registered democratic base in the county. Looking only at District 20 shows that this correlation of the house candidate to the presidential candidate is insightful. The correlation coefficient is quite high as a predictor in human events. The intercept is very close to the number of registered democrats in District 20 ( 7.8%). The slope and high correlation coefficient show that the campaign was on the shirt tails of the presidential campaign. Since the Demo- cratic Party was in disarray in District 20, there was no effective precinct structure to support the campaign. The numbers show this. Furthermore, the high and low range points on the line reflect the makeup of the precincts. The high points are the precincts adjacent to refineries, likely an area with more labor interests. The low points were the more expensive neighborhoods in the district, including the neighborhood of the incumbent. This range is worth exploring further, because it reflects not only a political party affiliation difference between income groups in the district, but I believe it also hints of a problem in the economic structure of Utah (best revealed by a ranked listing of employers in Utah). I will leave that review for another article. This method of simple scatter diagrams, familiar to engineers, surprised the political folks. I told them engineers look at prob- lems differently, and I was able to prove it in the end. IV. CONCLUSION I have a series of findings to report. First, our political system works better than I had imagined. Second, I found the experience of running for office wonderful due to the opportunity tomeet and enjoy the company of so many fellow citizens. I discovered that politics must be the single pursuit of my life that evoked the most unsolicited advice. Third, I am quite accustomed to public speaking, but I usually am discussing tech- nical topics for which I am well prepared. Political discussions are typically only one minute long, and words must be carefully selected to be impactful. This is difficult when the subject is spontaneous. More importantly, I believe that our real problems are not problems related to partisan political parties. One of my fellow running mates wrote to me, “You are a good engineer but a lousy politician,” when I refused to take a popular position unsup- ported by facts. My opponent whispered in my ear during our debates, “I wish I had thought of that,” and “You are good.” I implore engineers to run for office in our next election cycle in the party of their choice. REFERENCES [1] Obama,B.,RemarksbyThePresidentonElectionNight, 7 Nov 2012, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press- office/2012/11/07/remarks-president-election-night. [2] Donahoe, D., andWright, M., Growing Utah’s Economy by Technology Guilds, Utah Engineers Council Journal, 2012, Feb. 2012, pp. 21-24, http://utahengineerscouncil. org/UECJournal 2012.Donahoe, D., Reversing the Loss of STEM Careers, IEEE-USA Todays Engineer, March 2012. [3] Reversing the Loss of STEMCareers, Today’s Engineer, IEEE-USA, 12 March 12, 2012, http://www.todaysengi- neer.org/. [4] Donahoe, D, ECE Junior Seminar, 11 September 2012. [5] Keyssar, A., The Right to Vote, Basic Books, 2000. [6] US Census, World Population, http://www.census.gov/ population/international/data/worldpop/table_history. php. [7] Bosch, K., The development of the chemical high pres- sure method during the establishment of the new am- monia industryMay21,1932, http://www.nobelprize.org/ nobel_prizes/chemistry/laureates/1931/bosch-lecture. pdf.. [8] Prize Lecture by Daniel Kahneman, http://www.nobel- prize.org/mediaplayer/index.php?id=531. [9] Lynn, R. and Harvey, J., The decline of the world’s IQ, Intelligence, March-April 2008, pp. 112-120. [10] Herrnstein, R. and Murray, C., The Bell Curve, The Free Press, 1994. [11] Caesar [Handford, S.], The Conquest of Gaul, Penguin Books, 1951, pp. 90-91. [12] Hofstadler, R., Anti-intellectualsm in American Life, Vintage Books, 1962. [13] Frank, T., What’s the Matter with Kansas, Metropolitan Books, p. 13. [14] Herrnstein, R. andMurray, C, The Bell Curve, HerrnsThe Free Press, 1994, pp. 536-546. [15] Phone call to Davis County Eflections, http://www. daviscountyutah.gov/clerkauditor/elections/elec- tion_results/default.cfm, 14 Nov. 2012 Figure 6 - District 20 Scatter Diagram TAKING POLITICAL ACTION | continued from page 49